Saturday, February 25, 2017

The Ariel Threat Israel Faces

Nadene Goldfoot                                            
Israel surrounded by unfriendly nations with Egypt and Jordan who have signed a peace pact.  Syria and Iraq are now the Islamic State (ISIS) land, wanting to destroy Israel. They have the weaponry of those nations .   Saudi Arabia is conferring with Israel over ISIS.  Lebanon is mostly run by Hezbollah terrorists. The 1990 Gulf War shows that Israel cannot go back to the pre-1967 border in an era now of ballistic missiles and long-range bombers capable of crossing vast amounts of territory in minutes.   

The big threat facing Israel today happens to be missiles from Iran.  This state that is in the hands of an Ayatollah has been threatening Israel ever since they deposed the Shah.  Israel has faced many threats from them including an atomic holocaust.  Now that they have nuclear material, it's very possible.  Their agenda is sparked by a belief in the end of times and that they must destroy. Iran had a population of 76,923,300 in 2011.
 Russia supplies Iran who is supplying Hezbollah who is in Lebanon.  Lebanon's Hezbollah leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah (2nd R), escorted by his bodyguards, greets his supporters at an anti-U.S. protest in Beirut's southern section which is nearer to Israel.  ... It's almost like having Iran on Israel's border.  Iran has 545,000 active troops in their armed forces.  Lebanon has about 72,100 active troops. They have in their air force:    FightersGrumman F-14 TomcatMikoyan MiG-29Dassault Mirage F1Chengdu J-7
Iraq's newest F161Q Block 52 fighter jets that trained in Arizona.
This was the first of 36 ordered.  
ISIS, the Islamic State of Iraq, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, Islamic State, and by its Arabic language acronym Daesh, is a Salafi jihadist unrecognised state and militant  group that follows a fundamentalistWahhabi doctrine of Sunni Islam. It is no longer called ISIL.  
.Iraq had been an enemy with Saddam Hussein at the helm, but the Gulf War changed things.  In the 1980's, before its attack on Kuwait, Iraq bought some $50 billion in modern arms from both the East and the West.  Saddam had some 2,000 tanks and 400 to 500 combat aircraft.  some of Iraq's chemical arsenal, nuclear materials, facilities and some mobile ballistic missile launchers survived the Gulf War in good shape, and went undetected by the United Nations inspectors.  They still remain a possible long-term threat to Israel.  The UN inspectors can destroy equipment, but they can't eliminate  the knowledge that Iraqi scientists have. Iraq's population was 31,234,000 in 2011.  Iraq had in 2011 254,418 active troops.   They might use their experience to rebuild Iraq's unconventional capabilities one day. Iraq's air force has:  TransportsLockheed C-130 HerculesMore
    They were actively fighting in : EngagementsIran–Iraq WarIraq WarGulf WarMore .""It would take only 35 minutes for missiles from Iraq's H3 point to Jerusalem to fly 
the 250 miles. 

In 1955, Nasser of Egypt turned to the Soviet Union because the USA had armed Iraq, Egypt's hated rival and had promoted the Baghdad Pact.  Nasser was opposing any agreement of a defense alliance with the West.        
Syrian missiles aimed for Israel before ISIS appeared.  
Syria, now belonging to ISIS (Islamic State) mostly except Damascus, still in the hands of Assad and keeping conditions normal.  On 1 June 2015, the United States embassy in Syria stated that the Syrian government was "making air-strikes in support" of an ISIS advance on Syrian opposition positions north of Aleppo.  The president of the Syrian National Coalition, Khaled Koja, accused Assad of acting "as an air force for [ISIS  with the Defence Minister of the SNC Salim Idris stating that approximately 180 Syrian government officers were serving in ISIS and coordinating the group's attacks with the Syrian Arab Army." Much of the population has become refugees seeking asylum but in 2011 they had a population of 22,505,000.  296,000 were active troops in their army.  Now there are several different groups either fighting for Syria/ISIS or against them.  According to a Reuters report that cited "jihadist ideologues" as a source, 90% of ISIS's fighters in Iraq are Iraqi, and 70% of its fighters in Syria are Syrian.  The article stated that the group has 40,000 fighters and 60,000 supporters across its two primary strongholds in Iraq and Syria.  According to scholar Fawaz Gerges writing in ISIS: A History, some "30 percent of the senior figures" in ISIS 's military command are former army and police officers from the disbanded Iraqi security forces, drawn to ISIS by the US De-Ba'athification policy and turn towards Islamism by Sunni following the US invasion of Iraq.   From Damascus to northern Israel is 44 miles, taking a missile 7 minutes.   

"ISIS is now believed to be operational in 18 countries across the world, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, with "aspiring branches" in Mali, Egypt, Somalia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines.   The USA is intent on wiping them out.  I imagine that the heart of ISIS- Syria and Iraq, is the best place to attack.    In an interview with Iranian TV, Assad said that the success of this agreement of a  Russia–Syria–Iran–Iraq coalition was vital to save the Middle East from destruction. He said that the year-long air campaign by US-led coalition had been counterproductive and had helped terrorism to spread and win new recruits, but that the new coalition of Russia, Syria, Iran, and Iraq, could achieve real results                                          
King Abdullah and the Jordanian soldiers
           Jordan modernized its armed forces in the 1990's.  They mobilized them all along its border with Israel during the Gulf conflict.  Jordan then built up its arms inventories and then boasted to be one of the Arab world's most modern arsenals to go along with the most professional officer corps in the Arab world.
Jordan bought 50 of these MBombe armoured vehicles.
 During the Gulf War, King Hussein threw his lot in with the Iraqis.  I note that he also did the same thing in 1967 against Israel.  He aroused suspicion in Israel about his willingness to again join an eastern front. Jordan had a population of 5,356,869 in 2011.  In 2011 they had 100,700 active troops.   Now they also have ISIS as an enemy. Jordan's air force has:  FightersGeneral Dynamics F-16 Fighting FalconNorthrop F-5
Update: While living and teaching in Israel, I had my jr high students write in March 1982 to President Reagan in their own words telling of their concerns about the USA selling arms to Jordan, and other countries like Saudi Arabia.   They probably went unnoticed as the USA kept selling arms.  
Tarhunah chemical plant in Libya
Libya is one of the 7 nations on the no immigration to the USA list that will last for a few months.  That's because they have so many radical terrorists living there.  
Libya has militias who have been trading online high powered weapons. 

They have been receiving massive arsenals of Soviet-supplied weaponry for years.  By the 90's they had enough to directly be able to attack Israel.  They have the capacity for aerial refuelling of its bombers which gives them the means to reach Israel.  US intelligence discovered the construction of a 2nd Libyan chemical plant that was built underground besides the one they had with the Rabta facility.  That one was estimated to have produced as much as 100 tons of chemical agents.  "Libya is constructing what would be the world’s largest underground chemical plants near a place called Tarhunah, about 60 kilometers southeast of Tripoli. They began this work, we think, in about 1992, and we know that their chemical weapons production facility at Rabta has been inactive since it was exposed in the late 1980s, partly as a result of our efforts.  Tarhunah is to be a reconfigured version of the plant at Rabta, and that it will, if it moves forward, be used to produce blister agents such as mustard gas and perhaps nerve agents as well.  Libya had a population of 6,173,579 in 2011.  In 2011 Libya had 76,000 active troops.   Libya's air force has: FightersMikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-23Dassault Mirage F1
Saudi Arabia is speaking to Israel these days.  They have  mutual enemies in Iran and ISIS.                                               
Nuclear missiles like these might be bought by Saudi Arabia from Pakistan. 

With a small population of mostly their clan, they import workers.  They have continued to order weapons on a grand scale, trying to have the military capabiities far beyond their own defense needs.  The United States has been supplying them with arms, especially in the 1990s which was a bigger order than all previous years by a wide margin.  In the aftermath of the Gulf War, Saudi Arabia was still trying to buy large quantities of new US weaponry even though Iraq, the primary threat to their Kingdom's security, had had its military capability drastically reduced.  They can be a threat to Israel as a modest, well-armed force can have a substantial impact on the balance of forces.  They could esily deploy into Jordan before to the start of hostilities, or even after a war started when the Israeli Air force could be too preoccupied with ISIS attacking Israel, or even another Hamas intifada.  It used to be Syria or Iraq that Israel had to beware of, but right now their government is in disarray.
Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest weapons importer. 
In 1980 Saudi Arabia bought more than $50 billion in USA arms and military services.  The Saudi forces could not have defended their country even with these arms.  Iraq would have won, if Saddam Hussein had continued his blitzkrieg into Saudi Arabia before the American forces arrived in August 1990.  Most of these USA arms sold to Riyadh over the years would now be in Iraqi hands.  Saudis simply cannot withstand an assault by a large force since they have a small force.  That's why they are speaking with Israel.

The USA, we pray, would not hand over lots of aircraft and missiles to any force when it cannot ensure these weapons would not be used against Israel. That's why Iran was such a worry.  Their monarchy has been overthrown and a very hostile regime has taken its place.  If they attacked Saudi Arabia they would take control of the Saudi arsenal.  The Saudi buildup since the 1973 War that happened on Yom Kippur changes this equation.  The Kingdom can be pressured into offensive action against Israel by other eastern front partners because of this buildup. Saudi Arabia had a population of 27,730,000 in 2011.  They had 199,500 active troops.   Saudi Arabia's air force has: Attack aircraftEurofighter Typhoon
Lebanon's   animosity towards Israel continues today only because it provides a convenient excuse for Hizballah to maintain a formidable arsenal that it uses to control Lebanon and to help its allies in Syria. Lebanon has no valid justification for its hatred towards Israel. The tiny "Shabaa Farms," on the border with Israel, which is only 22 square kilometers in size, is often cited as a reason, but Syria also claims that same piece of land. Moreover, Israel is reported to be willing to evacuate it if it were to come under the control of UN peacekeepers. The "Shabaa Farms" is an excuse, not a reason.  Lebanese governments have even made anti-Israel aggression their policy. In 2009, the cabinet issued a policy statement recognizing Hizballah's "right to use arms against Israel," despite the objections of some ministers who insisted that Hizballah's "substantial arsenal ... undermines the authority of the state"

The Russia–Syria–Iran–Iraq coalition (RSII coalition), also referred to as 4+1 (in which the "plus one" refers to Hezbollah of Lebanon).  Russia is busy backing Israel's most dangerous enemies.  

"Israel was unable to stop Hezbollah activity, in spite a major offensive in 1996 (Operation Grapes of Wrath).Israeli withdrawal in 2000  was a victory for Hezbollah but also made it kind of a fighter without an opponent, it needed to justify its continuing existence as a major military force in Lebanon. Hezbollah kept on being a thorn in Israel's side, arguing that Israel was still occupying Lebanese territory (the territory in question is a tiny strip of land barely big enough for a golf course that Israel says is Syrian territory it occupied in 1967, Lebanon says is Lebanese, and Syria sends mixed signal about). Also Hezbollah griped about overflights and made noises about wanting to wipe Israel off the map and throw the Jews into the sea (you know, the standard boilerplate). In 1992 it had begun running in elections, and it also had started providing social and charitable services in areas under its control, making it part of the fabric of life in Lebanon."
Hezbollah marches

.Lebanon has had a national unity government since February 2014 that includes members of Hizballah and members of Hariri's party, but in January 2016, then Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi, a member of Hariri's party, resigned. This followed Saudi Arabia's cancellation of a deal worth $4 billion in support of the Lebanese army. The Saudi move resulted from Lebanon's failure to support Saudi Arabia against Iran, the sponsor of Hizballah. Rifi said that Hizballah "is an armed party that is dominating the government's decisions".Lebanon had wanted to negotiate peace with Israel, but that all dialogue was blocked by Syria. Hamade said that, "While Hariri and his block wished to normalize and demilitarize Lebanon after Israel's 2000 withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah and Syria wanted the opposite".Lebanon is not a free state with its own government.  Christians have not been in the government for years.  It was 60% Muslim in 2011 with a population of 4,196,453, smaller than Israel's 7.7 million.  The rule had been that they had a Christian President and Sunni Prime Minister and Shi'ite  speaker in the Parliament.  That has changed.  The Christian leaders were assassinated, which remains a lesson to Israel as to why it must remain a dominate Jewish population.   Lebanon had a population of 4,196,453 in 2011.  They had 72,100 active troops.  (Update:  Lebanon's Army and Hizbullah Join Ranks - Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira
Hizbullah has completed the process of usurping the Lebanese state and its institutions. The election of Michel Aoun as president, through a forced arrangement with Hizbullah, has fulfilled the Iranian vision of controlling Lebanon. Aoun's declaration that Hizbullah's military power is a main component of Lebanon's defense grants it the legal authority to operate as a legitimate military force. The Lebanese president's declaration has essentially removed Hizbullah from the restrictions of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 of September 2, 2004, that called for "the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias.")                                                                                       
Israel's El Al passenger plane

Israel finally received weapons from President Johnson (1963-1969) when it was clear that she had no other sources to buy arms.  It was the Soviet Union who was arming her neighbors.  From fiscal 1946 through fiscal 1990, Israel received about $50 billion in US economic and military assistance.  The Arab states received a similar amount.  The Arab nations were also at the same time receiving assistance from Asia, Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union and the European Community.  The USA's weaponry pursued a policy whereby Israel's qualitative edge was maintained.  The USA was also committed to arming the Arab nations, however, and provided Jordan, Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states   with sophisticated missiles, tanks and aircraft.  So, while Israel received F-15s in 1978, so too did Egypt and Saudi Arabia.  In 1981, Saudi Arabia, for the 1st time, received a weapons system that gave it a qualitative advantage over Israel---AWACS radar planes.  Ronald Reagan was president from 1981 to1989.  Before Reagan was Jimmie Carter.  
Dinner with USA, Israel and Palestine Authority 

US-Israel strategic cooperation had continued to evolve.  Joint ventures in research and development of several weapons systems, including the Arrow anti-tactical ballistic missile have been undertaken.  Joint exercises and data exchanges continue.  Israeli-produced weapons and intelligence were used in the Gulf War.  The period where this cooperation was questioned was during Obama's reign when he personally disliked Israel and showed it.  
Israeli air force jet

It should be understood by all that the 80% of US military assistance for Israel is spent in the USA which has created jobs and profits for American firms.  The largest orders, those worth $100,000 or more, proves how widely the benefits are spread by helping out Israel.  From 1987-90, over 1,000 companies in 47 states, DC and Puerto Rico signed contracts worth more than $4.2 billion with Israel.  In 1990, it was almost $1 billion.  Israel received $1.8 billion in Foreign Military Financing then and more than $1.5 billion was also spent on smaller contracts signed with US firms. 
Israeli tank

It was when Nasser of Egypt made his 1955 arms deal that Israel appealed to the USA for the right to purchase arms.  It referred Israel to France and other European suppliers, instead.  It wasn't until 1962  during Kennedy's reign that the USA agreed to sell Israel its first significant American system, the HAWK anti-aircraft missile.  
IAF jets

Egypt received Soviet help in 1955 under Eisenhower's administration of the Soviet IL-28 bomber.  By 1958 France provided Israel with a squadron of comparable Sud Vautour twin-jet tactical bombers.  In 1957 Egypt got MiG-17 fighter planes from Russisa and Israel received the comparable Super Mystere in 1959.  After the Egyptians got Mig-21, Israelis ordered the Dassault Mirage III supersonic interceptor and fighter-bomber.  And so it went.  Israel had to keep up with what the enemies were receiving so easily.  By 1977, Egypt owed the USSR about $11 billion, even when receiving arms at bargain prices in exchange for cotton and with long-term cheap-money credits.  The world has been making a fortune by keeping the Middle East in a War mode.  They have needed the hatred for economic reasons, it seems to me.
Israel's 1981 jet used in Operation Opera

In 1968, after the 1967 Six Day War when Israel won, the Johnson Administration sold Israel Phantom jets.  The American policy had finally shifted to emphasize maintaining the Jewish State's qualitative advantage.  Since then, they have sold sophisticated arms to Israel's adversaries that has wiped out Israel's edge we thought was being maintained.  Israel had a population of 6 million Jews and 1.7 million Arabs making 7.7 million.  It grew in 2013 to 8.059 million.  
Ethnic groups(2016)
All over 18 are capable of being active troops including Druze who want to serve,   except the other Arabs who for them make their own decision as to joining the IDF.  Jews are required unless given a religious deferment by attending a Yeshiva.  Both men and women serve.  
Israel's extremely expensive defense system of shooting down rockets.
Iron Dome is the world's first operational anti-artillery rocket defense system

Syrian missile intercepted by israel on friday had 200 kg warhead
Israel's Arrow missile defense system neutralized threat of 200 kilo warhead fired by Syria.
"The nation's military relies heavily on high-tech weapons systems designed and manufactured in Israel as well as some foreign imports. 
Women in Israel can fix and fly jets.

The Arrow missile is one of the world's few operational anti-ballistic missile systems. The Python air-to-air missile series is often considered one of the most crucial weapons in its military history. Israel's Spike missile is one of the most widely exported ATGMs in the world. Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile air defense system gained worldwide acclaim after intercepting hundreds of Qassam122 mm Grad and Fajr-5 artillery rockets fire by Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip. Since the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israel has developed a network of reconnaissance satellites. The success of the Ofeq program has made Israel one of seven countries capable of launching such satellites.

Resource: Book:  Myths and Facts by Mitchell G. Bard, Joel Himelfarb, 1992, p. 288, more
Book: Messages From A Syrian Jew Trapped in Egypt-covering chemicals used on Syrian civilians.  by Nadene Goldfoot*

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