Sunday, September 20, 2015

The Iran Deal's Analysis By Israel's Aman Military Intelligence

Nadene Goldfoot                                            
Safed in the Old City section

My former junior high students in Safed, Israel are now from age 41 to 46.  They've served in the IDF (Israel Defense Force)  and are still on call until age 55.  Every year they serve a month in training called the milueem to keep in shape and to keep up with the latest ideas.  Some may already be grandparents.  They were my 7th through 9th graders in my English classes from 1981 to 1985. Both men and women serve in the IDF.
Tuesday evening and all day Wednesday  Jews everywhere will be observing Yom Kippur, a time of fasting and asking  G-d for forgiveness from any wrongs they may have done. This was a directive from Moses. We've been observing this holiday for at least 3,286 years.   My students must be thinking of their families and children and what the future holds for them from now and through the next 25 years when Iran threatens that  there will be no more Israel.  Israel was attacked on Yom Kippur  October 6, 1973 by Egyptian and Syrian forces and a full-scale war erupted. Israel lost more than 2,600 men.  Arabs had used their Arab oil as a weapon at this time.   Several doomsday prophecies are centered around this period for this year. The Blood moon has a lot to do with it.
Hertzi Halevi (first from left) being appointed commander of the Galilee Formation in 2011.
Israelis are aware of the analysis prepared by Israel's military intelligence branch, Aman, which was presented to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the political echelon recently. The IDF's Intelligence Corps (חיל המודיעין), abbreviated as Haman (חמ"ן) and headed by a brigadier general, has been detached from Aman since the Yom Kippur War, but remains under its jurisdiction. The head of Aman is 2014–present: Major General Herzl Ha-Levi.   The main points of the analysis were printed immediately in the Israeli press.  It was certainly not an endorsement of the Iran deal that Obama is so happy with.
Since the USA's Jewish population of about 2% of the country's population happens to be mostly Democrats, many of our Jewish senators went along with Obama.  How they came to this decision is beyond me, as I accumulated so many reasons why it was a bad bad deal, but their going along really doesn't mean they supported the deal.  It's more like resigned acquiescence.
Many people thought Israel should back off from a fight over the deal, afraid of angering Obama more than being afraid of Iran's fullfilling their threat to destroy Israel.  The became resigned and think it's inevitable that Iran will get the bomb, no matter what, so why provoke Barack Obama? Who folded?   Ron Wyden, long time Senator from Oregon gave Obama his vote.  So did Congressman Jerry Nadler, New York.  Of course, J Street had a lot to do with keeping them faithful to Obama.  However, Senator Chuck Schumer, New York Democrat, voted against it and he had more to lose than anyone.  He was a leader in the Senate and dared to vote NO after careful study of the deal.
The intelligence assessment is that Iran won't be able to build a bomb according to the agreement if they don't cheat, and that is the hangup. Of course they will cheat.   Anybody who thinks they haven't already been cheating is very naive.  They will continue to cheat and won't be caught in doing so. They're on their own turf.  There's no chance of them not cheating because they will even be their own inspectors in the military areas according to this slanted agreement.  How the USA ever stupidly bought into this only heaven knows!!
At this moment Iran is full of demonstrators and posters of hatred for the USA.  I just saw them shown on the TV news program.                                            
The assessment tells how inspection mechanisms are flawed.  Iran will do some of their own inspections!  How nice for them.  How did they ever get this in the deal?  There were said to be lots of secret deals going on.   This is a country and an area of where baksheesh was born, pay-offs for things done.  It is even thought that Iran will hardly be able to restrain themselves and will continue supporting terror groups just to consolidate their gains from sanctions relief.  They are a regime who are supplying many terror groups and have been for a long time already.
The problem will happen if not sooner, when the agreement expires in about 25 years.  My 7th, 8th and 9th graders will be 66 to 71 years of age by then in 25 more years, and Iran will be only weeks away from having a nuclear bomb.

In the meantime, Iran is seen as legitimate from this deal, the real deal-makers, making Trump look like a junior high student in making deals.  It makes the Arabs and Israel stock up on all the latest weapons and now all will want a nuclear program of their own.  They will be more militarized so that in 25 years they will be ready for the big fight.
Russia comes out the winner in the Iran Deal
The problem shows that the risks of this deal are greater than the opportunities it seems to be selling to the public. This is a terrible deal for Israel and the USA.   Israel has to think and plan for the day after a done deal on Iran.  I note that in the USA, the vote hasn't even hit the Senate floor like promised.  It's all over?  No chance of mind's changing?  This goes along with asking Obama what he would do if the vote didn't pass and he said that wouldn't happen.

49% of Americans are against the deal.  30% are undecided.  In my opinion, this has come down to a political decision  of Democrats against Republicans instead of an intelligent decision about giving an unstable and Czarist Iran the A Bomb!  .  Everyone is now wondering if Israel will go it alone and try to take out the nuclear sites like they did to the one in Syria and the other in Iraq.  With Russians in Syria now trying to dominate air space, that makes it quite hard.  So does the possibility of of the USA even trying to shoot them down.
My German shepherd and I in Safed, Israel February 1982.  You can see our red Fiat in front of our apartment building on David Elezar.  Across the street is the junior high that I taught in from 81-85.  Every month I went with the police in their van with an M1 rifle on night patrol looking for terrorists keeping the city safe.  We gave blood at the blood bank so that if we were in need of it, we would also be on the receiving end.  
I will not be around in 25 years, but my children and grandchildren will, and so will my former junior high students be around in Israel.  They will be saying that this is not their golden years, but their very brassy ones, not worrying so much about old age and the problems that brings, but constant war and the knowledge that Iran wants to destroy both the Big Satan and the Little Satan with their nuclear devices such as an A bomb on the nose of a rocket.                                    
 The whole world will be armed to the teeth, especially their world.  Ever since 1948 Israelis have been under the gun in attacks, but now they must worry about an A Bomb.  The only Democratic state in the Middle East, and it has come to this.
Netanyahu's UN warning has gone unheeded
Resource:  the Jewish Press, page 10, Are Israeli Intelligence Officials for the Iran Deal?  by Martin Kramer


  1. I sense that Israel is being placed in an untenable situation that is much, much bigger than the mind of men. When one considers the lunacy surrounding just about every decision, the on going crusade of death, degradation and whole sale slaughtering of cannot help to wonder which one is more depraved? Are the current crop of world leaders detached from wisdom or has wisdom simply left the planet......on purpose?

  2. Your thoughts are my thoughts also, Jeff. We should get together and commiserate. Anytime you get to Portland, you'd better stop by in Gresham and look me up. I think they've all been zapped by outer space aliens who have taken their brains. This world is like watching a star-trek planet they are exploring. It's unreal. Logic? None whatsoever. Wait till you read today's about the POPE.