June 30th Deadline: A Deal or Not with Iran

Nadene Goldfoot                                                               

Prime Minister Netanyahu warned his citizens in Israel on Tuesday over their Channel 2 TV that the deal the US is brokering with Tehran will "pave the way for Iran to possess atom bombs".  "When speaking of the security of the citizens of Israel, I rely first and foremost on us only.  Proof of the wisdom of this is the agreement emerging between the world powers and Iran."  What he has seen, he hasn't liked at all!  

He knows that while he spoke, Russia's Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation's future plan is to build a 2nd nuclear reactor in Iran.  They had built one for Iran in 2013.  Their plans are to have 20 more nuclear reactors built.  Why does this oil-rich Islamic Republic need more reactors?  They say it is because they do not want to become dependent on oil.  
                                                                                   

 Remember last March when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel warned of just such a situation in his address to Congress.  

What kind of a deal would allow Iran to build all the reactors they want?  That's a good question.
                                                                     

Congress members were in accord with Netanyahu. Instead of stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, Mr. Obama’s diplomatic initiative “would all but guarantee” that it does, in turn setting off a regional arms race.  Now even Saudi Arabia is talking about obtaining an A bomb.  

The Obama Administration thought they had it in the bag that Iran had frozen its nuclear development activities.  They believed there had been an Iranian promise.  However, in the past 18 months, Iran has had their stockpile of enriched uranium grow by 20%.  Then it grew by 8% in the past 2 months alone.  This was discovered by the report from the IAEA (UN International Atomic Energy Agency).
                                                                             

John Kerry, negotiator 

Obama thought that during this negotiating process, Iran would have  frozen their nuclear development activities.  Now it's almost the June 30th deadline of a deal meant to limit the nuclear program and prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, at least as long as Obama was president.  

Negotiating under the terms says that Iran is to have only 660 pounds of nuclear fuel.  They need more to create nuclear weapons.   The rest of the nuclear stockpile is to be shipped away or destroyed.
                                                                   

On September 28,  2012, when the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, drew his red line on a  diagram of a bomb from the podium of the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday, he intended to illustrate in simple terms the point at which Iran’s uranium enrichment program must be stopped, at least in Israel’s view, to thwart a final sprint to a nuclear weapon.

Netanyahu thought at that time  that Obama was in in full agreement on the shared goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”  Netanyahu wanted the whole program to be ended.  Obama is trying to put restraints on the deal.  

Now, this year in  March the Iranians said that Iran had no intention of shipping any enriched uranium out of their country and they have not come up with any other solution to this.  Their stockpile is definitely growing larger.    The question remains as to how Obama could have been so adamant about claiming that Iran had frozen its nuclear activities when it's been obvious that their stockpile has been growing by the minute.

There was an interim agreement signed in March between Iran, USA and the P5+1.  It's main interest was around Iran's plan to build a conversion plant at the Isfahan nuclear complex.  In- stead of leaving enriched uranium as it was to become weapons-grade fuel,  it could be turned into oxide powder and then into reactor fuel rods.  Obama and his administration thought that while they wouldn't demand the stockpile had to shrink, it wouldn't be growing, at least.  

Iran did not make the conversion, reported  the Bipartisan Policy Center in February, a research group in Washington, the month before the signing.  
                                                                         
I wonder how well our translators are doing with Iran's language, Farsi.  They don't seem to catch on when Iran has stated that they will not go along with these points.  Iran must  think they are getting away with a lot.  At the same time we have all sorts of European countries chomping at the bit to do trade with them and make some money.  

Then again, Iran has made it very clear in plain English what he thinks of Israel and what he wants to do about her.  This is why Netanyahu is pounding away at the danger Iran is to them and to the world. He's been lecturing to the world and especially to the USA since 2008.   Iran  would not bat an eye at dropping an A bomb on Israel.  Their religious zeal is much stronger than their financial situation and their life right now.  It's not the common man of Iran that feels this way, but it's the Ayatollah power behind the presidency who rules the roost.  

Update: 6/17/15 "U.S. Could Lift Sanctions Before Iran Accounting - Michael R. Gordon and David E. Sanger

Secretary of State John Kerry signaled for the first time on Tuesday that the U.S. was prepared to ease economic sanctions on Iran without fully resolving evidence suggesting that Iran's scientists have been involved in secret work on nuclear weapons. "We're not fixated on Iran specifically accounting for what they did at one point in time or another," said Kerry. (New York Times)

Update: 6/18/15 Iran Nuke Talks Impeded by Disagreement on All Main Elements - George Jahn

Iran and six powers are still apart on all main elements of a nuclear deal with less than two weeks to go to their June 30 target date and will likely have to extend their negotiations, two diplomats said. Negotiators have been meeting five days a week in Vienna over the past few weeks, but Russian chief delegate Sergey Ryabkov said Friday the "the rate of progress...is progressively slowing down." Diplomats described disagreement on up to 10 elements crucial to any deal. (AP)

Resource: The Jewish Press,  June 5, 2015, page 1 and 3, Despite 'Freeze,,' Iran  Nuke stockpile grows by Hana Levi Julian
 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/29/world/middleeast/netanyahus-bomb-diagram-stirs-confusion-in-israel.html?_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/04/world/middleeast/netanyahu-congress-iran-israel-speech.html