Nadene Goldfoot
2026 Geopolitical Tensions: As of early 2026, reports indicate significant geopolitical tension involving Iraq, with allegations of secret foreign military bases, specifically reported Israeli activity in western Iraq aimed at Iran, causing violations of Iraqi sovereignty and local protests.
As of May 2026, Iran-backed armed groups operating under the umbrella of the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" have launched multiple attacks targeting Israel, including using drones and cruise missiles, specifically targeting areas like Tel Aviv. These groups, often affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have maintained that these actions are in retaliation for Israeli actions in the region. Drone and Missile Attacks: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed responsibility for various missile attacks, including "Arqub-type" cruise missiles targeting Tel Aviv.
Escalation Amidst Iran War: Since a broader conflict escalated in early 2026, Iraq has become a base for further strikes against Israel, with Iran-aligned factions playing a key role.
Alleged Israeli Counter-activities: Reports from early May 2026 claim Israel has operated a secret base in the western Iraqi desert to conduct special operations and logistical support to combat these threats and monitor Iran.
Since 2011, Ongoing Instability: Following the U.S. withdrawal, Iraq faced a resurgence of violence, including the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) and continued small-scale insurgencies in northern Iraq.
Iraq had survived The Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988): A devastating eight-year war initiated by Saddam Hussein against Iran. The report to me was that teens were fighting each other since the older soldiers were killed in the fighting. I had made Aliyah to Israel in 1980 and never was bothered by attacks since these two were busy fighting each other.
They had only 2 years to get their act together when hit by the Gulf War (1990–1991): U.S.-led coalition forced Iraq out of Kuwait after its invasion.
Since October 2023, Iraq has defied the odds. Despite extraordinary external pressures and deep state fragilities, the Iraqi government has kept the country out of regional wars.
Iraq’s political and religious leaders, including the powerful Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, have committed to protecting Iraq’s hard-earned stability. (Oy vey!)
In October 2023, during the Gaza war, Sistani issued a statement in which he 'condemned Israel and called on the world to stand up to the “terrible brutality” in besieged Gaza.
On 23 September 2024, Sistani's office issued a statement condemning the 'brutal Zionist aggression' in Lebanon amidst an intensified Israeli airstrike campaign in the country, urging the international community to uphold the protection of civilians and restore peace in the region.
On 28 September 2024, Sistani mourned the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and condemned his assassination in an Israeli airstrike the previous day. (He's a typical Shia Ayatollah in this respect).
In March 2026, Sistani issued a fatwa framing solidarity with Iran as a "collective duty" amid regional tensions and US-Israeli aggression. However, this is largely seen as a move to maintain stability against external threats, despite his known opposition to Iran's model of direct clerical rule (Wilayat al-Faqih).
2026: Nizar Amedi is the current President of Iraq, having been elected by the Iraqi parliament on April 11, 2026. Under the informal muhasasah power-sharing agreement adopted by the ruling elite in Iraq since 2003, the prime minister must be a Shia Muslim, the parliamentary speaker a Sunni Muslim, and the president, largely a ceremonial office, must be a Kurd] In contrast to previous agreements between the two ruling Kurdish parties (KDP and PUK) wherein it would be so that the federal presidency be held by the latter and the presidency of Kurdistan Region by the former, KDP nonetheless nominated Fuad Hussein for the 2026 Iraqi presidential election, challenging Amedi for the office. Because of the dispute, the December 2025 and February 2026 sessions of parliament postponed the presidential vote. This prevented the appointment of a new prime minister for five months following the November 2025 parliamentary election, because the prime minister is nominated by the president. The Kurds couldn't get their act together when they should have.
After being elected, Amidi said he will govern on the basis of "Iraq First" principles, condemning attacks on the territory of Iraq during the Israeli–U.S. war with Iran and supporting peace efforts.
Idan Amedi has shown strong, public empathy and solidarity towards the Israeli Druze community, referring to them as "brothers" rather than "cousins." He has praised their warmth, hospitality, and dedication to Israel, specifically honoring the families of Druze fallen heroes during visits to their communities. (Does he see them as co-partners against Israel like he may have had with the Pope? He's good a making friends, for his reasons. )
Iraq cannot make peace with Israel today due to deep-seated domestic anti-Israel sentiment, a 2017 law criminalizing ties, and severe intimidation from Iranian-backed paramilitary factions that control major political and security sectors. Iraq's dependency on Iran is enforced through these militias (Hashd al-Shaabi) and high reliance on Iranian energy imports (energy or weapons?)
Resource:
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/iraq-must-not-be-a-staging-ground-for-war-with-iran/
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